This study, “When Will Artificial Intelligence Exceed Human Performance?”, carried out by researchers from Yale University (USA) and the University of Oxford (UK), collected opinions about of 352 scientists and experts, and all believe that in 45 years’ time there is a 50% chance that the tasks occupied by humans can be overcome by an artificial intelligence system. The report also points out that the AI is progressing at a speed never before seen and that can completely change society as we know it, from health to transport, to economy and science.
The questions asked by the researchers were carried out with the objective of determining, in a timeline, the overcoming of typical human tasks by machines. Within a few decades AI (Artificial Intelligence) is likely to be able to master increasingly complex tasks and procedures, such as surgery or even book writing. The definition of “high-level intelligence machines” – machines that can complete tasks more efficiently and economically than humans – served as the basis for respondents’ considerations.
According to the results, half of the findings indicate that it is probable that within 45 years human activities will be overcome by AI systems, and that by 10% of the probabilities the date will even reduce to 9 years. Regarding total automation of work, there is a 50% probability that it will happen, but only in 122 years (10% chance of happening in 20 years).
In the last year of 2016, a novel created by an AI program, passed the first phase of selection for National Prize of Japanese Literature. “The Day A Computer Writes A Romance” was not the winner, however, it showed a significant development.
Noel Sharkey, a robotics expert at the University of Sheffield in the UK, told the BBC that “results of future studies can be useful within five to ten years: this is a foreseeable future”, and ” Once we go further than that, it’s pure speculation”.
The expert also sees as inevitable, the overcoming of machines over humans in various fields, does not believe, however, that artificial intelligence can even be compared to human. “I do not know if [machine]will ever be able to get up in the morning and see if my dog needs to go on the road or make meaningful human decisions”, he said.
According to Stephen Hawking, the creation of intelligent machines can pose a threat to the survival of the human species. Artificial intelligence has proved useful in a number of fields, but in the long run “it would become independent and redesign itself at even greater speed,” he told the BBC in late 2014. “Humans, which are limited by their biological evolution, cannot compete [with artificial intelligence]and would be outdated”, he added.
“The risk with AI is not malice, but competence”, he said in an interview with The Times. “A super intelligent AI will be extremely good at achieving your goals and if they are not aligned with ours, we will have problems”. Despite the situation, the physicist remains optimistic, believing that the human species will live up to its challenges.
Even Elon Musk, known for his futurist ideas, thinks that the ideal will be to achieve “a symbiosis between human intelligence and the machine” that will prevent the human race from becoming irrelevant. The statements were made this year at the World Government Summit in Dubai.